Introduction to probability there are many resources in videos that tell you how to calculate a value. For a probability.
This video doesn’t do that.
This video explains what probability is, how probability is used and ways that probability can be estimated.
Much that happens in our world is not completely predictable, but we often estimate How likely an unpredictable event is.
We draw on previous experience to estimate How likely something in the future is to occur.
We express the likelihood or probability is a number between zero and one where an event with a probability of zero will not happen and an event with a probability of one must happen.
An event of probability 5 is just as likely to happen as not to happen when we use words like very likely a fair chance or might happen.
The message can get confused.
Using numbers makes things clearer, even though our perceptions might be different probability, values are used to communicate.
How likely something is probabilities are also used in mathematical models. These models are used for many things, such as predicting weather, including floods and tornadoes deciding how many seats to sell at a certain certain price on a flight, creating computer games and evaluating forensic evidence.
Probability, values are just estimates of How likely it is for something to happen.
They do not tell us whether they will happen or not.
When we can list all the equally likely outcomes, it can be easy to estimate the probability.
These are sometimes called exact probabilities a priori traditional or model estimates other times s.
We use historical data or run an experiment to estimate the probability.
We assume that the future Behavior will be similar to previous Behavior.
We need to have many instances from the past or an experiment in order to have a good estimate of the probability.
This source of probability is called relative frequency, historical or experimental.
Sometimes we do not have enough information, and so we assign a probability value according to how we think things will turn out. These can be quite unreliable, but unfortunately, can be given a lot of influence because they seem official to find out more about probability watch our other videos.
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