Cardano: Is It the End?

Cardano ADA has been hit hard recently, so let’s discuss, and what I see happening in the future. The first event that I want to discuss is e Toro delisting Cardano and we need to break this down. So, a couple of weeks back e Toro posted a press release stating that they would limit trading of ADA and TRX for US users on their platform. e Toro is an exchange, if you’re not familiar. When I read this, I was a little bit surprised because it was my understanding and I had read in the past that IOHK, the foundation behind Cardano, was extremely stringent in following current regulations and ensuring a proper launch of their coin so that there wouldn’t be issues like this in the future.

ICOs, for example, are still a because it’s hard to say if an ICO should pass the Howey Test or not, or if in fact this is an investment security that should be further regulated by the SEC. Now looking into this even more, I couldn’t find anything that threw any red flags up about Cardano after this delisting for e Toro, and then looking into the press release, there was a few things that we need to take into consideration. So, first users of a relatively small exchange. In fact, taking a look at this chart of the largest exchanges for crypto, e Toro doesn’t even make the list. But you know who does make the list, Bit stamp.

This is significant because and they actually just listed ADA for trading. So I always find it really interesting how bad news travels so much further than good news does.

I mean, it’s 10X larger, this exchange, but yet, you don’t really hear about it. – 31’s my number. – That’s impossible.

– Beat it! – According to Charles Hoskinson, – There’s currently nothing we’ve received no regulatory event, no subpoenas, no nothing from any regulatory agency. – So why would e Toro de-list ADA for US users? Well, we can’t be 100% certain. One potential reason is simply the e Toro is based in the UK and offering to trade in the US is expensive and complicated.

Because of this, but this can’t be the only reason So we need to look into this further. Let’s start by looking at some metrics. Real volume is the daily amount traded of a crypto subtracting wash trade. So, it’s like the actual dollar amount traded. It appears that the current real volume is just a tad bit higher than where it was pre-Cardano hype boom, similar story to transaction volume.

It’s a different story, though, if we look at new addresses holding Cardano. You might find it surprising that the total wallets holding at least $100 in ADA has pretty steadily increased with only some slight dips in the last few weeks.

And the total wallet addresses, regardless of dollar amount, has increased even more very steadily and recently passing 3 million total wallets. Now another metric that I like to look at is and the reason I like these metrics is because it allows me to not be biased. I’m invested in Cardano, but I don’t want my analysis of Cardano to have any kind of bias whatsoever.

So, comments per day on a subreddit. It’s not a perfect data point, but it helps guide us to the right direction of where excitement behind the project might be. Here we can see subreddit engagement is decreasing and has reached a new level of higher lows.

Then if you squint your eyes and look further into the past on this chart, you can see other upticks also resulting in new baselines. And the massive amount of hype around Cardano at the end of the summer was just the largest instance of this new baseline being created because there were far more fans added to the community than ever before.

When I look at this chart, I would obviously rather see a nice steady incline, but looking at this realistically, I mean, Cardano was everywhere. So again, we ask the question, why is this happening? Why is volume and engagement down so far? The only answer I can come up with is surrounding the ‘Alonzo’ Hard Fork, back in September. There was so much hype around this Hard Fork, fork, and for good reason.

You know, proof-of-stake smart contracts, that’s big. But I don’t think we had enough people giving a realistic outlook of what that actually means.

I think there was this idea that smart contracts would be turned on. They would just, you know, flip that lever, and at that instant we would have a usable Dex, we’d have on-chain lending, we would have crypto games, all ready to roll, all with the massively low transaction fees of Cardano. I warned of this, even saying that the smart contract launches as the beginning, not as the finish line.

It was at this point that applications could really start being built and those things take time. But unfortunately, over time, people lose interest. They get bored. Now, months later, we’re finally on the cusp of select projects rolling out. But there’s a long way to go still.

In fact, I don’t think there’s a single general purpose blockchain or large-scale App that we could even consider to be completely built.

Period. In all of crypto, they’re all in beta. They’re all being worked on. So, it’s my thesis that Cardano was hurt by its own hype.

Cardano, in my mind, is the tortoise that, you know, had a little bit of a hare moment. But honestly it doesn’t fit Cardano’s mentality of measure twice cut once. You know, this is a slow mover in my mind. And then we combine these misconceptions with a correction in the crypto market, which just lands us with this perfect dookie storm, pushing Cardano’s price down even further. I’ve actually just continued to buy at this point.

You know, when the market was really high, I warned that any project that dramatically increases in price, you have to be careful and I was personally careful.

I wasn’t buying a whole lot. So now that prices are down, I’m looking at this as and that’s what I’ve done. I currently hold just over 41,800 ADA and an average buy of $1.22.

Now, of course my gains have gone down, but I’m still up 42% on this position. Also, the app that I use to track all my various crypto portfolios is coins tats. app I’ll have a discount link listed in the description of this video, if you need a better way to track what’s going on with your crypto portfolio. Another question I’m receiving is What will happen to me

Cardano stake pool? And the answer is nothing.

I’ve personally only added to that delegation as well. We currently have 2.9 million ADA staked in the pool, ticker symbol Max1. If you’re unfamiliar with my stakepool, I started a pool that helps facilitate transactions on Cardano. If you delegate your ADA to the pool, you’ll receive about 5% interest annually paid to you in ADA.

We also donate 5% of revenue to the Organization for Autism Research, and this is at no cost of you for joining, by the way. I’ll have a video linked in the description, if you want more information on that. Now what about Cardano’s, I see it mentioned every once in a while, that Cardano is limited to eight transactions per second, which would make it worse than Ethereum. And the argument is, so let’s break this down. The current transactions per second of Cardano are around 8.

1, but this can be increased to around 40 to 60 if the network needs it.

And that’s not counting the future Hydra upgrade. So, here’s how we get this. The current maximum block size in Cardano in bytes is 73,728. A block is created about every 20 seconds and the average transaction is around 450 bytes, so 73,728 divided by 20, divided again by 450 8.192 transactions per second on Cardano. Well, we don’t know the exact upper bound limits here. IOHK has done a large amount of research on transactions per second, and we can see here that 40 to 60 transactions per second seems very doable.

The reason it’s lower right now is because and increasing this would only cost more resources. And none of this is taking into account the Hydro upgrade, Cardano’s layer-2 solution.

Conservative estimates put the speed of this update to 2500 per second with some estimates as high as 1 million transactions per second. So due to all this, I personally don’t see any issues with Cardano and the speed of transactions. So where is Cardano headed from here? Honestly, I’m feeling pretty good about it. Let’s cover some of the good news that has been kind of glossed over in the recent past.

Cardano recently just passed 20 million transactions. This has happened four years after launch and before any activity from Dexus. Once Dexus are online, that transaction count will go through the roof and 20 million will look like chump change. What’s more impressive is in those four years, Cardano has had near zero downtime. I could only find one instance in the last year of about an hour in April of downtime.

And then we have Cardano’s ecosystem, as I mentioned, right now is build time on Cardano.

Here we can see the ecosystem map of all the various projects being built from lending platforms, launchpads, dexes, and payments. Most of these will be usable in the coming months. And it’s my thesis that down the road, once we’re seeing project after project launch and transaction volume increase on Cardano, the price will have nowhere to go but up. But when exactly will this happen?

I wouldn’t bank on it in a month or even two months, but come three to six months, I think that we’ll see many solid usable Dapps running on Cardano and the bottom line is, So I hope this was helpful in understanding the reality behind where Cardano stands, the issues floating around and some good news here with this blockchain.

And that’s going to do it for today. I would like to give a special thanks to my channel sponsor BlockFi. With BlockFi, you can earn interest on your Bitcoin, Altcoins and Stablecoins as well as sign up for their crypto credit card. How this works is you can use the credit card like a credit card, but you get paid cash back in Bitcoin, which is pretty cool.

I’ll have Block Fi linked in the description below.

I’d like to thank you so much for watching.

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