Depreciation is one of the major costs that comes with owning a sports car and some models are notorious for crazy high depreciation rates, costing owners tens and thousands of dollars. Luckily there are also models with a more modest depreciation or no depreciation at all. The Porsche cayman is one of them, but even in this market, there are some premature sign of cracking price trends. Welcome to the Market update Porsche cayman. In this video you will get updated on the latest price trends in the cayman market and get to know how the depreciation rates compare to other cars.
Last week we talked about the price trends in the Boxster market so go check out that video if you prefer the Boxster’s. This also means that there has been a lot of Porsche content lately. I know that some of you love it while others prefer to see other brands as well. So next week we will have a look at a different, more affordable brand. Let’s continue now by investigated the latest trends in the cayman market.
We start with the 718. Over here we have the price trends for the base, s, and GTSs. This shows that prices have been trending lower since the pandemic price top in the summer of 2022, but they have been doing so at a modest pace. Especially if we look at the base and S markets, which are the largest ones, we can see a slight flattening of the curve during 2023. This means that base models lost 5.2% during last year, Ss 5% and GTS 5.7%. In monetary terms we are talking about -2.7k, -3.6k and -4.7k. All of these numbers and in the rest of the video are before inflation adjustment. Porsche announced a big price jump for 2024 for 718s and this might be an explanation for the strong prices that we are seeing.
The data does than also display a price increase for the relatively new cars, meaning the ones between 0 and 7,000 miles. Let’s continue now with the 981s, I will cover the GT models and the 4L GTS at the end.
Over here we have the price trends for the 981 base S and GTS.
Similar to the 718s, we can see that trends flattened during 2023. In terms of depreciation, we are looking at -4,8% in the base market, -4.1 in the S market and plus 1.8 in the GTS market.
But we need to interpret this latter number with care. The GTS is becoming a rarity with anywhere between 0 and 10 cars for sale during the last year. The uncertainty in the plus 1.8% is therefore large. I would rely on the -4.1% in the S market. This change is statistically confirmed, meaning that it is unlikely to be the result of chance. The 987 market is even more problematic as supply is low in many of the subsegments. Over here we have the price trends split by the .1 and .2s, and the base, s, and R models. I know that there are many lines over here, but I would like to focus on the .1 S trend, the orange one. This is by far the largest market and most likely gives us the best estimate of what’s happening.
Looking at last year, we can see that prices are down by 3.2%. The second largest market is the one of the .1 base models. Over here we can observe a price change of 0.1%.
It probably does not come as a surprise that both of these changes are not statistically confirmed and can be the result of chance. Yet, we will use them as a proxy for the .2 market. Price trends in that market really should be interpreted with car. We can see for example a slowly declining trend in the .2 R market. But this is mainly driven by one or two cars which are decrease in price, after they do not sell within the 3-month interval. And that bring us to the latest six cylinders.
The GTS 4L, GT4s, and the GT4 RS. Over here we have the trend for the 981 and 718 GT4s, and the 718 4l GTS.
Similar to the rest of the market, all cars corrected in the second half of 2022. GT4s however bounced back to approximately 50% of the correction while 4L GTSs remained flat. This means that 718 GT4s lost 1.8%, 981s 0.3% and 4L GTS 3.2%. But again, none of these changes are statistically confirmed. The trends, however, reveal that the bounce is clearly over. The YoY change is flat or negative whereas it was mainly positive in the previous market update. The graph also reveals that 4L GTSs and 981 GT4s are priced approximately the same.
Purely from a depreciation perspective, the GT4 seems the more sensible choice. It belongs to the elite group of cars for which prices actually bounced back and for which prices are even after inflation correction, still at the same level as the beginning of 2020. That brings us to the GT4 RS. MSRP starts at 161k but if you add some options, you can easily reach the 200k market.
Based on the current median price of 243k, one could say that prices are strong.
But they are not. This is often causing a lot of confusion. We can see namely that the price premium is reducing quickly. Compared to last year, prices are down by 16.2% or 47k.
But the trend is starting to flatten, and the YoY change decreased compared to previous market update, so these cars are slowly starting to find their price point.
At the same time, it is also visible in the data that cars that don’t sell within 3 months are discounted less than one year ago. We covered a lot of numbers, so let’s put them together in one graph and deduce some insights. We can see now that the average depreciation rate was 3.8%kkkk and it was 2.7% if we exclude the GT4 RS. Most cars however lost between 3.5 and 5.7%, very respectable numbers. The GT4s remain the best performing cars in terms of depreciation.
That’s not a surprise as they have been at the top of the lead boards for a long time. The 981 GTS also performs well but remember that just as in the 987-base market, the uncertainty in this estimate is relatively high. In the market update from February, I revealed that there was one indicator that was pointing towards a softening in the market. That indicator is the carried over inventory.
It’s the percentage of cars that are not sold within three months.
In February we saw that the downward trend in the carried over inventory broke for the first time since 2022 and that values increased rapidly. This means that cars sold slowly. The main message of that video was that downside price risk increased and that it was worthwhile to monitor the situation. So did the depreciate rate accelerate? Over here we have the yearly depreciation rates of February 2024 and May 2024.
The ones we just saw. This reveals that the depreciate rates indeed increased in most segment. The average depreciation rate excluding the GT4 RS was was minus 1% while it currently sits at 2.7%. This means that all models depreciated more, with exception of the GT4 RS, 987 base market, and 981 GTS.
But I would only trust the number for the GT4 RS. But there is a caveat here. We need to check if this increase of 1.7 percentage points is a real increase. It turns out it’s not and that it simply could be the result of chance.
Excluding the GT4 RS, we can only state that the 718 market softened slightly as that’s the only segment where tests indicate that the changes are unlikely to be the result of chance. Looking at the chart we can then also see relatively large changes for the Vase, S, and 4L GTS models. Despite the softening in the 718, the general cayman market remains relatively strong. Let me show you how it stacks puck Over here, we have the US year-over-year price changes for almost all cars that feature on my channel.
On the horizontal, we have the price change compared to last year in percentages and on the vertical axis, we have the number of cars to which this change applies. The average decrease during last year was 7.0%, and most cars lost between 11.0% and 2.0%.
With rates of -4.0% for the 718 excluding the GT4 RS, and -1.6% in both the 981 and 987 market The caymans performed better than the average.
The 981 and 987 even fall in the top 25% of cars that lost the least. The GT4 RS on the other hand falls in the top 25% of cars that lost the most.
Let’s wrap up. We saw that the Porsche Cayman market softened slightly compared to February but that it still very much belongs to the group markets that outperformed the general market. If you are shopping in this segment and care about depreciation, it is hard to ignore the cayman. It is one the most financially savvy purchases you can make. Values decreased by an average of 2.7% excluding the GT4 RS and this is less than the market average. GT4s were even flat during last year, after they bounced back from correction in the second half of 2022. These trends contain some information about short term future prices.
Meaning that a continuation of the current trends is most likely. Unfortunately, we cannot predict the long term with any degree of certainty without an evidenced based model.
With that we arrived that the end of the video.
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